Example calculate PERT estimate
Your lead engineer estimates that a work package will most likely require 50 weeks to complete. It could be completed in 40 weeks if all goes well, but it could take 180 weeks in the worst case. What is the PERT estimate for the expected duration of the work package?
a. 45 weeks
b. 70 weeks
c. 90 weeks
d. 140 weeks
Answer: b. 70 weeks
PERT estimate
E(t) = (Optimistic+(4xMostlikely)+Pessimistiic ) / 6
= (40 + 200 + 180) / 6
= 420/6
= 70 weeks
[Planning]